Venezuela National Poll: Key Insights

Venezuelan society is highly-polarized, and its volatile political climate and dire economic conditions pose multiple challenges for businesses. A new ASG-GBAO poll conducted last month in Venezuela sheds light on public opinion on key issues related to the ongoing crisis. Below are ASG’s key takeaways from the poll. An extended analysis and results can be found here.

Summary of Insights

  • Venezuela remains an ideologically polarized society. While the vast majority of Venezuelans reject the Maduro regime, it retains a base of support of about 25 to 30 percent.  Supporters and opponents agree on little regarding the political situation, the roots of the economic crisis, and the role of international actors.
  • Despite polarization, there continues to be a large appetite for foreign investment and a positive view towards international companies. About three-quarters of Venezuelans believe international private investment is important to revitalizing the economy. 
  • There are mixed views on the best approach to solving the political situation in Venezuela, with strongest support for new elections under a Juan Guaidó presidency, sanctions on regime officials, and the removal of Maduro by the Venezuelan armed forces. The potential of an internationally mediated dialogue shows the most convergence between the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) and anti-regime supporters.
  • Maduro would struggle under any legitimate electoral scenario. In 2- and 3-candidate electoral scenarios tested in the poll, Maduro's support does not rise above 28 percent. 
  • Guaidó is the only politician tested in the survey with a favorable rating in Venezuela. About 3 in 5 Venezuelans have confidence in his ability to lead the country’s political transition. Notably, 60 percent of Venezuelans believe Guaidó should run for president in a future election, rather than merely serve as a transitional president.
  • A significant portion of Venezuelans view Hugo Chavez's legacy positively. While Chavez receives mixed scores on his overall performance as president, many Venezuelans want to see a continuation of at least some of his policies. The social programs known as misiones remain particularly popular.
  • There are segmented audiences for news sources.  PSUV-supporters tend to prefer state TV as a news source, while anti-regime and unaffiliated voters prefer social media and private TV stations.  Notably, however, social media is the overall most trusted source of information in Venezuela.  
PDF icon ASG Analysis - Venezuela National Poll 5.10.19.pdf