“It’s time to put the pieces together”, says consultant

The challenge for presidents Dilma Rousseff and Barack Obama will be to chart a course for the relationship that is able to survive the end of their administrations, believes Anthony Harrington, who served as U.S. Ambassador to Brazil between 1999 and 2001 and today is Chair of the Managing Board at Albright Stonebridge Group. For him, there is a need to overcome the U.S. spying episode and work towards a relationship similar to the one that the U.S. has with China. “All the pieces are there. Now is the time to put them together”.

What do you expect from the visit?

It will be a success if there is a reengagement of contacts at the highest level, after the cool down generated by the Snowden episode. It’s time to move on, as the Germans have done. There needs to be more than just the announcing of agreements, but real commitment, concrete steps, which have been missing since before the recent cool down.

What would be a successful visit?

I prefer to tell you what I would like to see. First, the announcement of bilateral commitments to address climate change. The U.S. is engaged in similar agreements with China and India, and Brazil should not be left out. We also know that Brazil is interested in having a permanent seat in the U.N.’s Security Council. The U.S. sees this issue from the perspective of the need for broad reform in multilateral institutions. There needs to be commitment to work together to have these institutions reflect the current world. A secondary outcome of this would be Brazil’s participation in the Security Council. I would also like to see movement towards visa free travel between Brazil and the U.S., as well as the acceleration Brazil’s participation in Global Entry. Finally, I would really like to see the beginning of conversations for a trade agreement. Overall, the important thing is for both presidents to chart a course for the bilateral relationship that is strong enough to last beyond their administrations.

Does the relationship between both countries fall short of its potential?

There is a lack of knowledge and expertise about Brazil in the United States. When President Obama made the unprecedented decision to visit Brazil after Dilma was elected for the first time, he said that it was time for both countries to have a relationship comparable with the one the Americans have with China and India. We need to move on from the current inaction and have that level of engagement. Brazil spent some time focusing on South-South relationships, which is good. But there was a decrease in focus of the benefits that a Brazil-U.S. engagement can bring. It doesn’t have to be one of the other.

You mentioned the Security Council in your outcome wish list, but reform of multilateral institutions, such as the IMF, have not succeed because the U.S. Congress refuses to approve them.

Both countries have Congress and political parties. I was in Brazil when we signed the Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty, which has proved to be relevant in the current corruption investigations in Brazil – with the U.S. government assisting Brazilians when needed. But we also signed an agreement for the launch of satellites from Alcantara, and the Brazilian Congress voted against it, much to the surprise of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso and Foreign Affairs Minister, Luiz Felipe Lampreia. This is similar to what we are facing with our Congress now, things that should be approved not always are. A key challenge in the U.S.-Brazil engagement is the fact that the American government needs to deal with crisis around the world. Obama has to deal with Ukraine, Iran, Middle East. But it is unusual for a president to ask his VP to “please take care (of the Brazilian relationship) and make it happen”. The pieces are all here. Now is the moment to put them together.

Dilma arrives in the U.S. during a difficult moment for her domestically. How could this affect the visit?

I believe that the dialogue between both presidents will rise above that. Every country has its ups and downs. The strong support from the business community for the bilateral agenda will be more important than Brazil’s current challenges.

How are investors perceiving the situation in Brazil?

They ask people like me if now is the moment to invest or not. We advise companies that are investing in Brazil, like pharmaceuticals companies who want to produce there, a large investment fund that is involved in local hospitals. There are opportunities. It’s a balance between people being concerned and seeing the long term opportunities.

Are you optimistic for the visit?

Yes. I have some short term concerns, but for the middle and long term, I am optimistic. Brazil has a bright future. Both Brazil and the U.S. have strong democratic institutions, natural resources and strong agriculture, and so will supply the world for many years to come. Brazil has sophisticated business and financial leaders. There is the need for more investment in infrastructure and education, but the Brazilian government knows this better than anyone.

[This is a translated excerpt of the interview for Estadão]

Link to full article here: http://digital.estadao.com.br/download/pdf/2015/06/27/A12.pdf